BY SOPHIE SOLOWAY ‘23
Ireland’s Feb. 8 general election ended with divisive results as the leftist party, Sinn Féin, won the national popular vote despite its platform of reunification and historic reputation of sectarian violence. Sinn Féin also filled 37 parliamentary seats — the most in the party’s history. This victory interrupted the nine decade-long rule by the Republic’s center-right parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. However, because none of these three leading parties received enough votes to shape the country’s new government, negotiation and additional elections are both expected to take place in the coming months.
The Sinn Féin popular win is shocking within the context of Ireland’s history of right-wing political leadership. Because the party only presented 42 candidates some suspect that even the party itself was surprised by its newfound popularity, according to Al Jazeera.
Mount Holyoke Professor of International Relations, Christopher Mitchell proposes that this drastic leftward shift may be accredited to the lasting effects of the 2008 financial crisis.
“I think that the most important dynamic is that not enough has changed,” Mitchell said. “The incumbent party, Fine Gael, had been in power since 2011, and while Ireland made its way out the debt crisis in that time, the average Irish voter was unhappy with the lack of progress in reviving the Irish economy in that time. Instead, the cost of living had steadily increased, and there was a sense that things were, if not dramatically worse, not improving and in need of a change.
The other mainstream party, Fianna Fáil, was both the party responsible for the mismanagement of the financial crisis in 2008 and also a party of continuity rather than of bold moves that might break Ireland out of the doldrums,” Mitchell continued. “This made a more dramatic break with the past more attractive.”
Many Irish leaders and voters view this change as a sign of ideological realigning that may be taking place within the Republic. This seems especially plausible given Sinn Féin’s past alienation within the mainstream Irish political narrative. The party began as the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, which once fought for Irish unity during the Troubles lasting from the 60s to the 90s. This period’s conflict centered around Northern Ireland’s political affiliation with the United Kingdom or with the Republic of Ireland. Over 3,000 people were wounded by politically-motivated street fights, bombs and sniper attacks before the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. This treaty concluded that Northern Ireland would remain in the United Kingdom, but the subject of reunification between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland continues to be controversial.
Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald has publicly stated that she plans for a vote regarding the reunification of Northern Ireland and the Republic within the next five years if she becomes Ireland’s Prime Minister. Although the 1998 peace treaty states that reunification talks must be led by Northern Ireland, McDonald’s statement reflects a shift in the public’s willingness to consider reunification.
“The Good Friday Accord allows for the possibility of reunification if a referendum supports it on both sides of the border,” Mitchell said. “We’re closer to that point than we’ve been since 1997. If that happens, a major U.S. ally will surrender a part of its territory, possibly setting up serious consideration of a Scottish secession.”
This debate over Irish unity has become increasingly relevant as plans for Brexit solidify. The U.K.’s recent exit from the European Union has raised several questions regarding Northern Ireland’s shifting relation to the EU, Britain and the Republic of Ireland. Because of conversations regarding Northern Ireland’s possible departure from the U.K., Irish unification has become a more timely question.
Mitchell believes that this political shift may be telling of the types of ideological changes that are taking place for voters and leaders worldwide.
“This is part of the broader trend in the world’s democracies of the centrist parties losing ground to more radical elements,” Mitchell said. “Sinn Féin has historically been considered too radical for either of Ireland’s mainstream parties to partner with; now it’s the largest party in Ireland. However, unlike in continental Europe, the anti-status quo movement in Ireland has manifested in a leftist move, rather than right-wing populism. It will be interesting to see if this is part of a broader left-wing shift — which might encompass the rise of left fig- ures such as Sanders and Warren in the U.S. — or an idiosyncratically Irish manifestation of populist pressures.” The Republic of Ireland’s party system will require all three of the popular parties to attempt to either gain enough votes to win a majority or reen- gage in a later election in the coming months. Until a decision is made, the current administration will continue its rule over the nation.