By Lily Reavis ’21
Editor-in-Chief
President Donald Trump announced that both he and the first lady had tested positive for COVID-19 just before 1 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 2. During a news conference the next day, however, White House Physician Dr. Sean Conley said that Trump had tested positive “72 hours ago,” which would have placed the positive test on Sept. 30 — 36 hours before the public was informed. The White House has yet to disclose when Trump last tested negative for COVID-19, drawing speculation from politicians, contact tracers and journalists about when and how the president contracted the virus.
One potential answer is that he became infected at a Sept. 26 Rose Garden event for the nomination ceremony of Judge Amy Coney Barrett. At least 11 people who attended the event, including multiple Republican senators, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany and Assistant to the President Nicholas Luna, have since tested positive for COVID-19. The outbreak among high-ranking GOP leaders could have drastic implications for the upcoming presidential election, which takes place in less than a month. It could also seriously upset down-ballot races in a year where the party affiliation of the Senate remains up for debate.
While the news of Trump’s positive COVID-19 test was shocking so close to the election, Assistant Professor of Politics Adam Hilton said that he was not surprised. “We’ve all witnessed the president downplay the severity of the disease and flout basic, simple safety protocols,” he said. “So that the president unnecessarily exposed himself to greater risk was obvious.”
Initial announcements made by both Trump and the first lady were enthusiastic and downplayed the seriousness of the virus. Melania Trump said that she was asymptomatic and “feeling good” in a tweet on Friday. Later in the day, however, President Trump was taken to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for monitoring after being administered supplemental oxygen and an antibody cocktail at the White House.
At Walter Reed, Trump began a five-day treatment plan of the antiviral drug remdesivir. He also experienced a second oxygen drop, with Conley reporting a fall to 93 percent. On Saturday, he was given a dose of dexamethasone, a corticosteroid drug was shown to help severe COVID-19 patients and usually reserved for those on supplemental oxygen. Throughout his treatment at Walter Reed, Trump downplayed the seriousness of his illness and of COVID-19 in general. After leaving the hospital briefly to wave at supporters from a Secret Service limousine on Sunday, he returned to the White House in a theatrical show on Monday night. In video footage of his early return, Trump removes his mask and can be seen visibly gasping for air at the top of the White House steps. According to The Washington Post, White House staffers have not been given safety protocols to follow at work despite the multiple positive cases within the Oval Office circle.
Trump once again dismissed the seriousness of the virus on Monday night, telling Americans “don’t be afraid of it.” In a tweet, the president said that he felt better than he did 20 years ago and urged the nation not to let COVID-19 “dominate your life.” On Tuesday morning, he equated the virus — which has killed more than 210,000 Americans in the past seven months — to the flu, which he falsely claimed kills up to 100,000 Americans per year.
“That projects, I think, an image of a leader trying to downplay its severity,” Hilton said, regarding Trump’s dismissive attitude toward COVID-19 since becoming infected. “And that makes sense: Trump is very vulnerable on the issue. It is a national disaster and indeed a global pandemic, but it is a national disaster that he hasn’t really been able to get control of.”
According to Hilton, contracting the virus has done no favors for Trump’s reelection campaign. “It foregrounded not only his own personal behavior that has been less than fastidious, but also the wider policy failures of the administration,” he said. There was no sympathy bump recorded in recent polls, and many older voters who have historically supported Trump are now questioning his leadership. On Tuesday, CNN released a poll that placed Biden 21 points ahead of Trump in the 65 years and older demographic. According to a recent New York Times poll, only two age groups continue to support Trump: a small cluster of traditional conservatives who are 70+ years old and a group of middle-aged voters ranging from the oldest Generation Xers to the youngest baby boomers.
Another important facet to consider is the role of the vice president in both the election and the Oval Office. Vice President Mike Pence has led the White House coronavirus task force since February, which has placed him in a position to be heavily criticized for the administration’s failed COVID-19 response. He falsely claimed in March that any American would be able to get tested for the disease, only to backtrack on his word days later. Each time that Trump’s response plan has failed, Pence has been at the forefront of backlash from American citizens and representatives. In mid-March, he reportedly placed calls with several governors to urge them not to direct anger at the administration’s pandemic response toward Trump, instead promising to personally deal with the issues at hand. Seven months and over 210,000 dead Americans later, Pence faces a difficult final campaign month in the face of the failed national response.
“If you're trying to lead a task force and you can't even keep White House health protocols in line, that doesn't look good,” Hilton said.
On Wednesday night, Pence and Senator Kamala Harris took the stage for their first debate, divided by plexiglass barriers that were not used at the previous presidential debate. Both had tested negative for COVID-19 multiple times in the days leading up to the debate. Harris remained sharply critical of the Trump administration’s pandemic response throughout, calling it the “greatest failure of any presidential administration.” Pence largely evaded questioning about his role in the pandemic response throughout, instead of changing the subject nearly every time he was asked a difficult question. After one question about the Affordable Care Act in regards to the coronavirus pandemic, Pence personally thanked Harris and Biden for their “expressions and general concern” following the president’s positive COVID-19 test. “The American people have a right to know about the health and well-being of their president and we’ll continue to do that,” he said.
It remains uncertain how the GOP outbreak will affect the final month leading up to the election. “It is almost a fitting motif for the end of the Trump presidency that, after four years of disruption and incompetence and, of course, some pretty nasty policies, the president himself contracts the virus,” Hilton said. “You can see it in the history books 20 years down the line as kind of an ironic ending to this presidency. That is, of course, assuming he will not be president after inauguration day, which isn’t a safe assumption.”
Even though recent polls have largely suggested that Biden could win the popular vote next month, it is impossible to assume that either candidate is a shoo-in for the presidency. What may be a more important question right now is how the future of the Supreme Court will impact the American democratic system. With Trump’s recent appointment of Barrett to fill the seat of the late Chief Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the Supreme Court now faces a 6-3 partisan division, and impacts are already being seen through recent conversations regarding Roe v. Wade and Obergefell v. Hodges.
If the election comes down to a close count or a few states, Hilton is concerned that it will be contested, which would require a Supreme Court decision about whether or not to accept ballots mailed in near, on or after Election Day. If they do choose to accept those ballots, that could make the call for Biden, whereas the opposite could award Trump a second term. “That Supreme Court is going to face a really significant option,” Hilton said. “I don’t want to exaggerate, but I think one that could define the next era of American politics. If that court finds 6-3 in favor of Trump, it will be mayhem.”
If the Supreme Court begins to be perceived as a partisan body by the American people, it could upset the constitutional makeup of the nation’s democratic structure, which relies on checks and balances. If decisions made by the Supreme Court — such as the re-election of a far-right president after a contested ballot count — are rejected by a large number of state governments, it could have tremendous effects on the future of electoral processes within the United States. According to Hilton, the legitimacy of the Court could be called into question.
“So, if I were a conservative and I want my now basically-assured hold on the whole federal court system to be a significant source of power over the next 25 years, and I get that decision in my lap of whether or not to effectively call the election,” Hilton said, “I would engineer a 9-0 in favor of Biden.”
With the president back in the White House and reportedly beginning to recover from his COVID-19 symptoms, the day-to-day events of the next three weeks remain uncertain. On Tuesday, Trump said that he would participate in the next debate with democratic nominee Joe Biden, which is scheduled to take place on Oct. 15. The final debate is scheduled for Oct. 22, at a point in the election when many Americans have already submitted their ballots either by mail or through early voting processes.