By Shira Sadeh ’25
Global Editor
Content warning: This article discusses mass death.
A recent conflict in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, has raised concerns over the prospect of a civil war. On April 15, 2023, fighting erupted in Khartoum between the Sudanese Armed Forces and a paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces, Al Jazeera reported. Not only could the conflict cause damage to Sudan’s transition to democracy, but experts warn it also has implications for the already unstable region.
According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the conflict broke out due to unresolved negotiations between the SAF and the RSF. As the military was being reformed to give civilian leaders control over the security forces, the RSF and the military were negotiating a merger to consolidate forces. The RSF has not been willing to become subordinate to military leadership or to be stripped of ranks earned under RSF leadership, while some members of the SAF oppose including less professional security forces in the official state military.
Andrew Reiter, associate professor of politics and international relations at Mount Holyoke College, explained in a recent interview with Mount Holyoke News that escalations in violence during political transitions are not unprecedented. “A number of other countries have had similar experiences to what is happening in Sudan now. It is not uncommon … for the military to allow a transition to civilian rule only to take over again when it is not going to their liking,” Reiter said.
According to the United States Institute of Peace, however, this conflict is different from the fighting that has happened in Sudan’s recent history. While the military has fought against rebel groups before, the RSF is a paramilitary group recognized by law, and has fought on behalf of the Sudanese government. Reiter added that although tensions such as this are not uncommon, it is indicative of a sharp turn away from democratic transition. “Unfortunately, this is likely the beginning of a longer period of violence in the country. It is a major setback for a transition to democratic rule,” he said.
According to The Washington Post, the military has enjoyed a significant amount of political power in Sudan since Oct. 2021, when General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan initiated a coup and ousted the transitional government. Burhan was closely aligned with Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who was and still is the leader of the RSF.
Reiter also explained that this coup was a key moment in Sudan’s history, which was defined by the international community’s reaction to the coup. He stated that “the international community bears the most responsibility for how it engaged with [Burhan and Hemedti] after the coup. They were responsible for terrible atrocities in the past and their commitment to democracy was unclear, yet they were treated like statesmen in negotiations about transitioning to civilian rule. They needed to be dealt with much more firmly to deter this very type of thing from happening.”
The conflict also has potential implications for the region around Sudan. Reiter explained that the violence will increase the number of refugees leaving Sudan and fleeing to surrounding countries. According to Al Jazeera, conflicts in neighboring countries — such as Ethiopia, Libya, South Sudan and Somalia — have created a humanitarian crisis in the region, with tens of thousands of people dead or displaced. A potential civil war in Sudan will only exacerbate this issue.
Reuters reported that several countries have begun evacuating foreign personnel based in Sudan. The United States, Britain and France extracted all government personnel and dependents. Germany and Italy are not far behind, with Italy providing evacuation efforts for individuals from Vatican City, Switzerland and several other European countries. The Russian government is currently unable to complete successful evacuation efforts, as it would have to cross the frontlines. The Russian ambassador in Khartoum reported that approximately fifteen people are currently trapped in a Russian Orthodox church near the fighting. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have completed evacuation missions for several of their diplomatic staff and other nationals, and many more countries are completing their own operations.
According to Reiter, while mediation efforts are likely to continue, the withdrawal of foreign nationals by many countries indicates that these countries do not believe mediation will prevent violence in the near future. As of April 24, Al Jazeera reported that both sides of the conflict agreed to a 72-hour ceasefire, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced, although both sides have violated several temporary truces since the fighting began. “During this period, the United States urges the SAF and RSF to immediately and fully uphold the ceasefire. To support a durable end to the fighting, the United States will coordinate with regional and international partners, and Sudanese civilian stakeholders,” Blinken said.
The Security Council of the United Nations is scheduled to meet with Sudanese representatives on April 25, Al Jazeera reported. Antonio Guterres, the secretary-general of the U.N., urged the Security Council to use its influence to return Sudan to a peaceful transition to democracy, saying “we must all do everything within our power to pull Sudan back from the edge of the abyss … We stand with them at this terrible time.”