By Morgan Nguyen ’26 | Kiera McLaughlin ’26
Contributing Writer | Global Editor
Alexander Stubb, the former prime minister of Finland, has seized a victory in the presidential election, marking a significant turning point in Finnish politics. His win comes amidst heightened tensions in the Baltic region and a growing concern over Finland’s security alliance.
In a run-off election, Stubb, a member of the center-right National Coalition Party, secured a win over his rival, Pekka Haavisto, with 51.6% of the vote, according to The New York Times. With his victory, Stubb succeeds Sauli Niinistö, who has held the presidency since 2012, and will become the next person to shape Finland’s foreign policy.
Stubb plans to lead Finland towards a new era after the country joined NATO last year. In an interview with CNN, he stated that “the reason we joined NATO [is because] … there was a potential existential threat coming from Russia.” He continued that “we in Finland felt very strongly about on the 24th February, 2024, when Putin attacked (Ukraine), that this could happen to us.”
In his campaign, Stubb focused heavily on issues of national security, emphasizing the need to further Finland's relationship with NATO. In a conference held in Helsinki, he promised that Finland “will play our part in the alliance,” AP News reported.
Stubb also asserted that Finland needed to maintain a hardline stance against Russia and Putin. The Moscow Times reported that the president-elect does not intend to “maintain high-level ties with Russia until the Kremlin ends its war in Ukraine.” It also reported that likewise, Russian President Vladimir Putin “did not plan to congratulate Stubb on his election victory since Finland is among those countries Moscow considers ‘unfriendly.’”
The outcome of the presidential election has significant implications not only for Finland but also for the broader Baltic region. In response to Mount Holyoke News, Assistant Professor Christopher Mitchell of the politics and international relations departments at Mount Holyoke College explains that “[it] was enough for both Finland and Sweden to abandon a position of neutrality they'd held since the Cold War and focus on securing promises of Western support in the hope of deterring or as necessary helping repel a Russian invasion,” and as a result, “Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, think that the threat of Russia invading them in a manner similar to what happened in Ukraine is a very real danger.”
Like many other European countries in the military alliance, Finland now holds its breath for the U.S. 2024 Presidential election, after former U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks that “he would let Russia ‘do whatever the hell they want’ against NATO allies that do not contribute sufficiently to collective defense,” The New York Times reported.
“Perhaps NATO's biggest asset is that potential aggressors believe that NATO members, including the U.S., really will treat an attack on one as an attack on all members. So long as potential aggressors have no doubt that the U.S. would support an attacked NATO member, it would be deeply irrational to attack any NATO member,” Mitchell said.
Elaborating, Mitchell said, “The best thing for the other NATO members would be for U.S. leadership, including the presidential candidates but also the congressional leadership and military command, to reinforce an iron-clad commitment to the alliance. However, if the U.S. cannot be relied upon anymore, the rest of the NATO members need to reinforce their commitment to each other. A NATO without the US is obviously less powerful than a NATO with the U.S., but would still include two nuclear powers (the UK and France) and several other major powers. Therefore, they could offer a still-intimidating threat to would-be aggressors, even if it's less intimidating and thus more vulnerable than a NATO where the US is a reliable partner.”
As president, Stubb will face the daunting task of navigating these complex issues. His presidency is likely to herald a period of intense debate and deliberation as Finland charts its course in an increasingly uncertain security environment.
In the coming months, all eyes will be on Helsinki as Alexander Stubb assumes office and Finland embarks on a new chapter in its history, one that could fundamentally alter its relationships in NATO and shape its future role in European security affairs.